Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 129,421
2 South Dakota 124,697
3 Rhode Island 114,050
4 Utah 112,694
5 Arizona 109,571
6 Tennessee 108,836
7 Oklahoma 104,509
8 Iowa 104,358
9 Wisconsin 104,288
10 Arkansas 103,727
11 Nebraska 102,180
12 Kansas 99,276
13 Alabama 98,085
14 Indiana 96,856
15 Mississippi 96,579
16 South Carolina 94,643
17 Idaho 93,766
18 Nevada 93,661
19 Illinois 91,915
20 Wyoming 91,810
21 Montana 91,155
22 Louisiana 90,322
23 Texas 88,593
24 Georgia 88,576
25 California 88,200
26 Kentucky 87,963
27 New Mexico 86,116
28 Delaware 85,239
29 Florida 85,081
30 New Jersey 83,986
31 Minnesota 83,983
32 Missouri 82,872
33 Massachusetts 80,925
34 Ohio 80,361
35 New York 79,169
36 North Carolina 78,715
37 Alaska 76,561
38 Connecticut 74,983
39 Colorado 72,213
40 West Virginia 71,192
41 Pennsylvania 70,260
42 Virginia 64,436
43 Michigan 62,979
44 Maryland 61,393
45 District of Columbia 55,144
46 New Hampshire 52,058
47 Washington 43,488
48 Puerto Rico 41,088
49 Oregon 35,630
50 Maine 31,638
51 Vermont 21,918
52 Hawaii 18,908

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 South Carolina 712
2 New York 442
3 Delaware 386
4 New Jersey 362
5 Virginia 350
6 Oklahoma 348
7 North Carolina 330
8 Florida 319
9 Mississippi 310
10 Massachusetts 308
11 Kentucky 307
12 Georgia 295
13 New Hampshire 287
14 Texas 285
15 Utah 282
16 Tennessee 265
17 Nebraska 256
18 Pennsylvania 244
19 Alabama 228
20 Vermont 228
21 Ohio 225
22 Colorado 223
23 Arizona 221
24 Arkansas 219
25 West Virginia 217
26 Nevada 212
27 California 208
28 New Mexico 198
29 Iowa 192
30 Indiana 191
31 District of Columbia 181
32 Louisiana 177
33 Maryland 171
34 South Dakota 171
35 Minnesota 163
36 Illinois 161
37 Montana 151
38 Wisconsin 144
39 Kansas 139
40 Rhode Island 138
41 Maine 116
42 Missouri 107
43 North Dakota 106
44 Puerto Rico 101
45 Idaho 100
46 Oregon 94
47 Michigan 93
48 Wyoming 90
49 Washington 87
50 Connecticut 78
51 Alaska 71
52 Hawaii 42

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 2,527
2 New York 2,335
3 Massachusetts 2,246
4 Mississippi 2,171
5 Rhode Island 2,161
6 South Dakota 2,084
7 Connecticut 2,070
8 Arizona 2,057
9 Louisiana 1,998
10 North Dakota 1,917
11 Alabama 1,884
12 Indiana 1,808
13 Pennsylvania 1,807
14 Illinois 1,745
15 Arkansas 1,744
16 New Mexico 1,683
17 Iowa 1,659
18 Michigan 1,612
19 Tennessee 1,587
20 South Carolina 1,553
21 Nevada 1,528
22 Kansas 1,497
23 Georgia 1,450
24 Texas 1,429
25 Ohio 1,398
26 District of Columbia 1,387
27 Florida 1,339
28 Delaware 1,317
29 Missouri 1,283
30 Maryland 1,249
31 Montana 1,242
32 West Virginia 1,233
33 California 1,190
34 Wisconsin 1,158
35 Minnesota 1,142
36 Wyoming 1,117
37 Nebraska 1,097
38 Colorado 1,028
39 Oklahoma 1,016
40 Idaho 1,010
41 North Carolina 1,003
42 Kentucky 995
43 New Hampshire 833
44 Virginia 821
45 Washington 622
46 Puerto Rico 600
47 Utah 559
48 Oregon 506
49 Maine 482
50 Alaska 370
51 Vermont 302
52 Hawaii 298

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Ohio 107
2 Alabama 15
3 Arizona 13
4 Georgia 10
5 Massachusetts 10
6 South Carolina 10
7 California 9
8 Mississippi 8
9 Texas 8
10 Arkansas 7
11 Delaware 7
12 Indiana 7
13 Nevada 7
14 New Mexico 7
15 New York 7
16 Florida 6
17 Kansas 6
18 Oklahoma 6
19 Kentucky 5
20 North Carolina 5
21 Oregon 5
22 Pennsylvania 5
23 Rhode Island 5
24 South Dakota 5
25 Tennessee 5
26 Iowa 4
27 Maryland 4
28 Missouri 4
29 New Jersey 4
30 West Virginia 4
31 Illinois 3
32 Louisiana 3
33 Michigan 3
34 New Hampshire 3
35 Colorado 2
36 Connecticut 2
37 District of Columbia 2
38 Idaho 2
39 Virginia 2
40 Maine 1
41 Minnesota 1
42 Montana 1
43 Nebraska 1
44 Puerto Rico 1
45 Utah 1
46 Washington 1
47 Wisconsin 1
48 Alaska 0
49 Hawaii 0
50 North Dakota 0
51 Vermont 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Crowley Colorado 318,759 1 99
Chattahoochee Georgia 265,242 2 99
Bent Colorado 254,796 3 99
Lincoln Arkansas 239,558 4 99
Lake Tennessee 237,030 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 126,014 229 92
Richland South Carolina 93,328 1232 60
York South Carolina 87,138 1547 50
Orange California 80,892 1837 41
Pierce Washington 40,612 2903 7

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Gove Kansas 8,346 1 99
Jerauld South Dakota 7,948 2 99
Iron Wisconsin 6,682 3 99
Buffalo South Dakota 6,626 4 99
Galax city Virginia 6,617 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 1,165 1931 38
Orange California 1,126 1974 37
Richland South Carolina 1,121 1983 36
York South Carolina 1,043 2095 33
Pierce Washington 560 2682 14

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons